Market Quick Take – 11 July 2025

Q3-2025 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: New highs in US; tariffs escalate; tech and travel lead; EU deal hopes lift Europe
• Volatility: VIX near March lows; short-term vols fade; SPX priced for small moves
• Digital assets: Bitcoin +1.74%; ETH breaks $3K; ETF inflows surge; shorts liquidated
• Fixed Income: US Treasuries steady after government sales
• Currencies: Tariff jitters supporting a small weekly USD gain
• Commodities: Weekly copper and silver gains offsetting broad agriculture losses
• Macro events: UK trade and production data, Canada unemployment rate

Macro data and headlines

• Trump threatened a 35% tariff on some Canadian goods, to take effect from 1 August, suggesting he is intent on ratcheting up his trade war with Canada, while the EU will be next to receive their letter. He also raised the prospect of increasing levies on most other countries by 15% or 20%.
• US initial jobless claims dropped by 5,000 to 227,000 in early July, contrary to expectations of a rise to 235,000, marking a fourth consecutive decline. Despite this, ongoing claims increased by 10,000 to 1,965,000, the highest since 2021, raising concerns about slowing hiring.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK May Trade Balance
0600 – UK May Industrial & Manufacturing Production
1230 – Canada June Unemployment Rate
1700 – Fed's Goolsbee speaks

Earnings events

None today
Next week: earnings season Q2 is starting with financials kicking off the season

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Q3-2025 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

Equities

• US: Wall Street extended gains Thursday despite fresh tariff escalation. The S&P 500 (+0.27%) and Nasdaq hit new highs, ignoring Trump’s new 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods and copper imports. Nvidia (+0.75%) rose after surpassing a $4T valuation, and Tesla (+4.7%) rallied on robotaxi expansion and xAI integration. Delta Air Lines soared 12% on strong Q2 results and upbeat guidance. Jobless claims dropped to 227K, signaling continued labor market resilience.
• Europe: European equities edged higher Thursday, but a weaker open loomed Friday as Trump warned the EU of imminent tariff hikes. The STOXX 600 gained 0.5%, with luxury and mining stocks leading. DAX (-0.4%) slipped from record highs despite BMW (+4.15%) beating sales expectations. CAC 40 rose 0.3% as hopes for a US-EU trade deal grew. FTSE 100 climbed 1.2% to a new record, led by Glencore, Rio Tinto, and AstraZeneca. WPP rebounded 1.1% on CEO appointment after Wednesday’s selloff.
• UK: The FTSE 100 (+1.23%) hit an all-time high Thursday, driven by miners surging on copper tariff news. Glencore (+4.6%), Rio Tinto (+4.2%), and Anglo American (+4.1%) led gains. Healthcare stocks added to the upside, while WPP (+1.1%) recovered as it announced a new CEO. Trade deals with Japan and France provided a supportive backdrop. Flat futures on Friday suggest caution ahead of US-EU tariff developments.
• Asia: Asian markets were mixed Friday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 1.7%, reaching a four-month high on tech and rare earths strength. China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite each rose over 1%, buoyed by stimulus hopes and anti-overcapacity messaging. In contrast, the KOSPI (-0.3%), Nikkei (-0.3%), and ASX 200 (-1.5%) slipped on renewed trade fears. Trump’s 35% Canada tariff, and hints at broader duties, dampened sentiment across the region.

Volatility

• Volatility stayed subdued Thursday, with the VIX slipping to 15.78 (–1.0%), its lowest since March. Short-term gauges like VIX1D and VIX9D fell further, closing at 9.49 and 12.46 respectively, signaling calm despite geopolitical risk. Credit spreads remained tight, and put premiums cheapened. SPX options imply a modest ±24-point expected move for today (~0.38%), consistent with recent low-volatility sessions. Investors appear comfortable holding risk ahead of earnings season and CPI next week.

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin rallied past $118,000 (+1.74%), setting new highs as ETF inflows surged. BlackRock’s IBIT (+1.45%) saw continued strength, lifting its holdings beyond 700k BTC. Ethereum rose to $3,013 (+2.07%) and ETHA advanced 1.81% on $158M inflows. Altcoins joined the rally: XRP +1.55%, Solana +0.75%, Dogecoin and Polygon up over 6%. Crypto-related stocks like COIN (+4.04%), MARA (+1.93%), and MSTR (+1.52%) also climbed. Over $1B in shorts were liquidated in 24 hours, underscoring renewed retail and institutional momentum.

Fixed Income

• The 10-year US Treasury yield steadied at 4.35%, following a week of government bond sales, and as markets digested trade shifts and Trump’s call for a 300bps Fed rate cut, fuelling dovish Fed speculation. Two rate cuts are still expected this year, with a hold this month still the most likely outcome.

Commodities

• The Bloomberg Commodity Index is flat on the week, as gains in metals—led by an 8.6% tariff-driven surge in New York copper—were offset by broad losses in agriculture, with corn down 5%. Elsewhere, the energy sector held steady, with strength in fuel products balanced by weakness in natural gas.
• Crude prices fell 2% on Thursday as traders renewed their focused on the prospect of an oversupplied market later in the year, before steadying as Trump said he planned an announcement on Russia next week.
• Gold trades flat on the week after a two-day climb as traders focused on tariff threats from President Donald Trump and the outlook for US monetary policy. Instead, silver, supported by copper strength, is heading for its highest weekly close in 13 years, trading just below the June peak at USD 37.32.

Currencies

• The USD is on track for its first weekly gain in three, supported by renewed tariff concerns that lifted the greenback against most major peers—notably the JPY, EUR, and CAD, the latter after Trump threatened to impose a 35% tariff from 1. August. The Bloomberg Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.7% on the week. Losses were broad-based, with the AUD the exception, posting a modest gain after the RBA held rates steady earlier in the week.

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