Market Quick Take - Chip jitters resurface as Hormuz hopes build - 6 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Iran and Oman's Hormuz shipping-corridor deal capped a soft-data week ahead of Friday's payrolls.
• Equities: US markets were mixed near records, Europe edged to another high, Asia fell as the AI rally cooled.
• Volatility: Chip-sector jitters resurfaced overnight after a near-record close; vol stayed contained with jobs data ahead.
• Digital Assets: Crypto equities firmed on Hormuz optimism while spot eased; Hashdex's ETF wind-down marked a sector milestone.
• Commodities: Gold and silver rally hard, crude oil remains lower
• Fixed Income: US treasuries remain firm on soft US employment data, Japan’s JGB’s rally on strong JGB auction
• Currencies:Muted action as USD and JPY remain near weaker side of recent price action.

Macro

• Iran and Oman agreed overnight to establish a shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, raising expectations of higher Middle East energy exports and marking the clearest step yet toward reopening the waterway.
• US private payrolls (ADP) rose just 44,000 in July, the smallest gain in six months and well below the 70,000 forecast, keeping Friday's non-farm payrolls report the week's key print.
• The ISM Services PMI ticked up to 54.1 and the S&P Global Services PMI jumped to 54.6, the fastest pace in nine months, though price pressures intensified on tariff-linked input costs.
• Euro area producer prices fell 0.3% month-on-month in June, the first drop in four months, led by a 1.5% fall in energy prices.
• The UK Composite PMI rose to 52.2, its strongest reading since April, though employment kept falling even as output price inflation eased.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0600 – Sweden Jul. CPI
• 0600 – Germany Jun. Factory Orders
• 0930 – US Jul. Challenger Job Cuts
• 1230 – US Initial Weekly Jobless Claims

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

• Wednesday (yesterday): Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Western Digital, Sandisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, DoorDash, Infineon Technologies
• Thursday: Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall, Cloudflare, DataDog, Airbnb, Constellation Energy
• Friday: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software,

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%, while the Dow rose 0.5% to a third consecutive record close. Progress towards a US-Iran agreement and softer oil prices eased inflation concerns, while slower private hiring kept attention on Friday’s payroll report. Eli Lilly jumped 4.9% after beating expectations and raising guidance, and Disney gained 3.6% on stronger profit, while SpaceX sank 13.6% as heavy artificial intelligence spending and an expiring lock-up overshadowed revenue growth. AMD fell 7.0% despite strong data-centre sales as investors demanded clearer returns from spending.
• Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 finished little changed at a fresh record, while the DAX fell 0.3% and the FTSE 100 added 0.1%. Earnings remained the main driver as Glencore rose 4.1% after first-half profit beat forecasts and Heineken gained 2.2% on stronger profit, while HSBC dropped 4.7% as concerns over Chinese taxes on offshore insurance products hit Asia-facing financial companies. Novo Nordisk fell 4.3% despite lifting its outlook, as investors focused on slightly weaker Wegovy pill sales and a CagriSema trial delay. Markets now turn to another heavy results day, with company guidance still outweighing the macro headlines.
• Asia: Asian equities fell Thursday as the previous session’s artificial intelligence rebound lost momentum. The Nikkei 225 traded around 1% lower, the Kospi dropped 4% and the Hang Seng fell 1.9%, while mainland China was broadly flat, selling centred on semiconductor leaders including SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Kioxia and Tokyo Electron after weak reactions to US technology earnings. Singapore moved against the trend, with the Straits Times Index up 1.1% as DBS gained 3.0% to a record after quarterly profit beat estimates and management raised its 2026 income outlook. Korea’s latest swings showed that crowded trades rarely travel in a straight line.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 15.81 | VIX FUTURES: 17.63 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (133.32) | MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• Chipmakers reversed overnight after Wednesday's near-record close, Sandisk and Western Digital sliding post-market and the Kospi dropping 4.5% on SK Hynix and Samsung weakness, though US futures steadied. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday 0.2% lower at 7,736.52, just off its record. VIX eased to 15.81, VIX1D fell 12.6% to 12.12.
• The term structure sits in contango, VIX3M at 18.95 and VIX1Y at 22.67, while SKEW held at a normal 133.32 and MOVE eased to 73.58. SPX's expected move is about 43 points (0.56%) into today's expiry and 64 points (0.83%) into Friday, with Friday's jobs report the key catalyst.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~64,436 -0.26% | ETHEREUM ~1,895 -0.64% | IBIT 36.74 +0.96% | ETHA 14.48 +2.33% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

• Crypto-linked equities firmed into Thursday even as spot eased slightly, tracking the Hormuz de-escalation and softer dollar lifting risk sentiment. IBIT and ETHA advanced, miners were mixed, with Cipher and Iren down over 4%, Marathon and CleanSpark also lower, though Coinbase and Strategy held steadier.
• Hashdex began winding down its Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (DEFI), the first US spot bitcoin ETF liquidation, after fixed costs proved unsustainable against larger rivals; trading ends 17 August with cash distributions to follow.

Commodities

• Precious metals surged to new local highs above the recent ranges, encouraged by a stronger US treasury market, with gold vaulting above USD 4,250 per ounce for the first time since June after rallying USD 170 per ounce Wednesday. The price retreated slightly from an intraday high early Thursday above USD 4,300 to trade at 4,260. Silver rallied some three dollars per ounce Wednesday, trading above USD 62 early Thursday.
• LME copper maintained above USD 14,000 per tonne into the close of trade on Wednesday, closing at 14,150 and eyeing the highest level of all time from May at an intraday level just below 14,200.
• Crude oil prices stayed under pressure and near recent range lows after Iran said it had reached an agreement with Oman on a route for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. October Brent trades near USD 79 per barrel early Thursday and September WTI below UD 75 /bbl.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US treasuries remained firm through the softer than expected US ADP private payrolls data and the sharply weaker employment index in the ISM Services survey for July (see above). The benchmark 2-year treasury yield traded early Thursday near its lowest level in over two weeks near 4.19%, while the 10-year treasury yield was steady near 4.61%.
• Japan’s government bonds rallied hard Thursday on a solid 30-year JGB auction result, flattening the yield curve. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield dipped more than a basis point to below 1.57%, while 10-year and 30-year JGB yields fell about five basis points to near 2.78% and 3.94%, respectively.

Currencies

• Very muted action in the major currencies as the US dollar remained on the weak side of recent price action, with EURUSD trading just below 1.1550 early Thursday after slightly higher levels overnight and USDJPY near 157.77, near the session high, but remaining bottle up below 158.00, which it has not touched since the big intervention moves last week.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis