Weekly Market Rewind M

Weekly market recap & what's ahead - 28 April 2025

Macro 3 minutes to read

Weekly market recap and what's ahead

28 April 2025  (recap 21 to 25 April 2025)


Key Takeaways

  • Equities rebounded sharply on US-China trade optimism and strong tech earnings.
  • VIX dropped to 26.47 as volatility eased significantly.
  • Bitcoin stabilized around $93,000; strong ETF inflows supported sentiment.
  • US 10-year yield traded near 4.3% amid rate cut expectations.
  • Gold corrected from record highs; oil prices volatile on OPEC+ tensions.
  • USD regained strength, but FX markets remained sensitive to trade headlines.

Markets recovered strongly from earlier losses as President Trump softened tariff rhetoric and corporate earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, and others beat expectations. Volatility declined sharply, cryptocurrencies remained resilient, and bond yields signaled expectations for Fed rate cuts.


Equities

Markets opened the week weakly on April 21 after Trump pressured the Fed to cut rates, with the S&P 500 down -2.36% and Nasdaq 100 down -2.58% (April 21). Sentiment reversed sharply by April 22 as Tesla (+5.1%) and 3M (+8.1%) led gains, helping the S&P 500 rally +2.51% (April 22). The rally continued with SAP (+10.6%) boosting European markets on April 23. Alphabet (+5%) and Nvidia (+1.1%) lifted tech sentiment after earnings on April 24, while Intel fell -5.7% on weak forecasts.


Volatility

The VIX surged early in the week, reflecting fears over Fed independence (April 21), but reversed sharply lower as optimism over trade developments improved. It closed at 26.47 on April 25, down nearly 7% from the day prior, while VIX1D and VIX9D indicators also moderated.


Digital Assets

Bitcoin hovered around $93,387 on April 22 and stabilized near $93,350 by April 25. Ethereum followed a similar pattern. Sentiment improved after Strategy’s $555 million Bitcoin purchase and continued institutional ETF inflows. Crypto-related equities like Coinbase (+5%) showed resilience.


Fixed Income

Bond yields were initially volatile, with the US 10-year rising to 4.42% (April 21) before easing to 4.3% by April 25. Fed speakers suggested a willingness to cut rates if tariffs hurt the jobs market. The 2s10s curve flattened slightly as the market priced in more aggressive easing.


Commodities

Gold surged to a record near $3,500 early in the week before correcting to below $3,300 (April 25) amid improved risk appetite. Crude oil swung with OPEC+ tensions but rebounded later in the week as China reiterated economic support. Natural gas tumbled 7.5% on storage build and mild weather.


Currencies

The USD initially weakened but recovered as risk sentiment improved. EURUSD tested 1.14 but fell back toward 1.13 by April 25. USDJPY rose above 143.60 before finding resistance. Markets remained highly sensitive to tariff news and Fed policy expectations.


Looking Ahead (28 April to 2 May 2025)

  • Monday: Schneider Electric, Domino’s, F5 Networks earnings.
  • Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, AstraZeneca, Booking, Pfizer, Honeywell, Starbucks, PayPal earnings.
  • Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, Caterpillar earnings.
  • Thursday: Apple, Amazon, McDonald's, Eli Lilly, Mastercard earnings.
  • Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell earnings; April Nonfarm Payrolls; PCE inflation report.
  • Key Macro: Trump's 100th day in office; US Q1 GDP; Consumer Confidence; ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Markets will be driven by earnings heavyweights and crucial macro data, with volatility likely around jobs and inflation reports.


Related Quick Takes

Disclaimer

Confidentiality and Usage:
You may not reproduce, distribute, or transmit this material or any portion thereof without prior written permission from Saxo.

Nature of Information:
The information provided herein is based on current market conditions and analysts' opinions, which may reflect personal views of the author, and are subject to change without notice. This material does not include a record of any trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, or endorsement to enter into any transaction in any investment product. Any forecast on the economy, markets and economic trends of the markets provided is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the investment product subject of this material.

Responsibility and Liability:
Saxo accepts no liability for any use that may be made of these comments or for any consequences that arise from such use. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

The information provided in this material is solely for information only. It is intended for general circulation and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Accordingly, it should not be relied on or treated as a substitute for specific advice concerning specific situations of any person. Please seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before you make a commitment to purchase an investment product. In the event that you choose not to seek advice from a financial adviser, you should consider whether any investment product mentioned in this publication is suitable for you.

Notwithstanding the above, insofar as any information provided herein contains research analyses or reports concerning any investment product authored by any foreign research house and is issued or promulgated to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor, and/or institutional investor, Saxo Capital Market Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility for the contents of this material to the extent required by law. Recipients of such material are to contact Saxo Capital Markets Pte. Ltd. in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material.

Risk Disclosure:
Trading in investment products involve significant risk, including the risk of losing your entire investment. Historical returns are not a guarantee of future returns. Prices can both rise and fall, and there is a risk that you will not get back the money you invested.

Conflicts of interest:
The author may hold positions in the investment products mentioned. The author does not own positions in the underlying investment product exceeding 0.5% of its market capitalisation, save as otherwise declared. The author is not permitted to trade the mentioned investment products within the first 24 hours after the publication of this article.

Saxo maintains partnerships with companies that compensate Saxo for promotional activities conducted on its platform. Additionally, Saxo has agreements with certain partners who provide retrocession contingent upon clients purchasing specific investment products offered by these partners. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Publication details:
If any listed companies are the subject of the material, the content has not been submitted to the companies in question prior to publication.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Saxo is part of the J. Safra Sarasin Group.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.