Market Quick Take - US mid-term elections today the focus - 3 November 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Today’s US mid-term elections in focus. RBA hiked, but shifted dovish on guidance.
• Equities: US equities declined as AI concerns persisted, Europe advanced on falling oil prices, while Asian markets weakened, led by South Korean technology stocks.
• Volatility: VIX rose while nine-day volatility moved above spot with the vote inside its window
• Digital Assets: Crypto miners and Coinbase fell after analyst cuts while bitcoin funds saw outflows
• Commodities: Oil rebounds after sharp slump, gold faces resistance at USD 3970 while copper’s resilience is tested
• Fixed Income: Treasury yields only slightly lower after steep drop in crude oil prices
• Currencies: US dollar retains modest safe haven appeal. AUD lower after dovish hike.

Macro

• Iran's leadership authorised the government to pursue further talks with Washington, with both presidents citing progress in Qatar-mediated negotiations. US officials said the military carried out limited defensive strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island after the IRGC said it had downed US drones near the Strait of Hormuz. Asked whether strikes would resume after the midterms, President Trump said no.
• The ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5, above expectations, with firmer output and new orders and price pressures still elevated. US construction spending fell 1.9% in September, the steepest drop since April 2020.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, an 18-year high and its fifth increase this year, on a six to three vote (three dovish dissents in favour of no change), and its new forecasts do not see inflation below 3% until late 2027, although the growth outlook was lowered and the unemployment rate forecast was raised for the forecast horizon.
• China announced market-support measures on Tuesday, including a halt to large IPO’s and large share sales.
• Today brings the US midterm elections. Poll closing times vary by state and the US has four time zones. The earliest closing time for major states is midnight GMT, when Florida, Georgia and Virginia begin tallying results. Half an hour later Ohio and North Carolina polls close and at 1:00 a.m. GMT Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Texas polls close, among several other states.
• In the US, AMD, Shopify and Pfizer report earnings today. The week also holds the Treasury's quarterly refunding on Wednesday, Bank of England and Norges Bank decisions on Thursday and US payrolls on Friday.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0730 – Switzerland Oct. CPI
• 1500 – US Sep. JOLTS Job Openings
• 1500 – US Sep. Factxory Orders
• 1600 – Canada Bank of Canada’s Macklem to speak to lawmakers
• 2145 – New Zealand Q3 Unemployment Change / Rate / Earnings

Earnings events

• Tuesday: AMD, Amgen, Arista Networks, Shopify, Pfizer, Eaton Corp., Marathon Petroleum, Booking Holdings, Ferrari, Apollo Global Management
• Wednesday: McDonald’s, Qualcomm, Novo Nordisk, Uber, McKesson, CVS Health, Datadog, Applovin
• Thursday: ConocoPhillips, Deutsche Telekom, Canadian Natural Resources, Parker-Hannifin, Southern Company, Cloudflare, Duke Energy, Airbnb, Monster Beverage, Lumentum
• Friday: Enbridge, Moderna

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.4%, entering correction territory, while the Dow rose 0.4% as investors continued to question the returns on massive AI investments ahead of the US midterm elections. Marvell Technology plunged 12.7% and Lumentum sank 18.6% after announcing a USD 115 billion all-stock merger, while Oracle lost 8.8% on plans to raise USD 20 billion through debt and equity. In contrast, IDEXX Laboratories surged 21.9% after raising its outlook. After hours, Apple slipped 2.8% as rising memory costs threatened margins despite strong iPhone sales, while Palantir faced pressure despite beating expectations.
• Europe: European equities advanced on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 gaining 0.4%, Germany’s DAX rising 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 climbing 1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 adding 0.3%, as hopes of progress in US-Iran peace talks sent oil prices sharply lower. Cheaper energy supported travel and industrial stocks, lifting Ryanair 5.2% and Lufthansa 4.1%, while BP dropped 4.4% and Shell fell 3.1% alongside crude prices. Alstom plunged 26.1% after cutting its profit outlook and warning of substantial cash outflows due to problems with German train contracts. Investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments and corporate earnings.
• Asia: Asian equities traded mixed on Tuesday, with South Korea’s KOSPI falling more than 3% in early trading, while Hong Kong edged higher and Australian shares gained 0.4%, as renewed concerns over AI spending weighed on technology stocks. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix declined sharply, with both losing around 5% shortly after the opening, following another sell-off in US semiconductor shares. Mainland Chinese markets also weakened despite recent policy support, while lower oil prices added pressure on energy producers.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 21.15 | VIX FUTURES: 20.650 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: FLAT | SKEW: ELEVATED (152.78) | MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Traders paid up for the week of the vote, not the day itself. The VIX rose to 21.15 and nine-day vol jumped to 22.46, above spot, while one-day vol eased. The premium sits across the election count, Wednesday's refunding and Friday's payrolls, not in today's session. Options price about 0.86% for today and 1.85% into 6 November.
• The vote falls outside every futures window. The November contract trades above December on the 9 December Fed decision, a hump that has held into today while the back months firmed. SKEW and dispersion both climbed after Monday's chip losses, while MOVE barely moved, so rates vol did not confirm the equity stress.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~76,809 +0.13% | ETHEREUM ~2,249 -0.04% | IBIT 43.35 -0.02% | ETHA 50.74 +0.63% | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Bitcoin steadied near USD 76,800 overnight, but Monday showed investors stepping back from the listed crypto names. Miners fell hardest after Keefe Bruyette cut targets across the AI-hosting group and warned of a lease drought into early 2027, with Riot down 7.57%. Coinbase lost 3.98% after Morgan Stanley's downgrade, which questioned exchange earnings after the Binance hack.
• Strategy bought 811 bitcoin but spent more buying back its STRC preferred than on coin. Bitcoin ETFs shed about USD 399m, almost all through IBIT, while ether funds lost about USD 140m, a sixth straight outflow. Circle and Riot report on Wednesday.

Commodities

• Oil: Brent tumbled 8% on Monday after Iran's leadership authorised further talks with Washington, with both presidents citing progress in Qatar-mediated negotiations despite significant differences remaining. Prices rebounded modestly today after US forces reportedly carried out limited defensive strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island following claims by the IRGC that it had downed US drones near the Strait of Hormuz. However, President Trump apparently ruled out resuming strikes after the midterms. The oil slump also weighed on other energy markets, with European gas futures falling almost 9% and US heating oil posting its steepest decline in six months.
• Precious metals: Gold and silver rebounded strongly from Friday's slump as tumbling oil prices initially improved risk sentiment. However, gold encountered renewed selling near USD 3,970, a former support level now acting as resistance. The rejection highlights fragile sentiment, with technical and momentum-driven selling continuing to outweigh longer-term investor demand. Attention now turns to today's US midterms, global equities, Middle East developments, and energy prices.
• Copper's recent resilience is being tested, with prices falling 2.8% in Asian trading to USD 6.38, challenging recent lows in the USD 6.30–6.40 area. Despite supportive structural fundamentals, the short-term path of least resistance appears lower amid broader metals weakness, renewed equity market selling and growing questions over the AI and data centre demand narrative. Adding to the pressure, the yuan weakened after the PBOC moved to curb its recent appreciation, making dollar-denominated copper more expensive for Chinese buyers. For now, these headwinds are overshadowing tight physical markets and constrained mine supply.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields were little changed on Monday after a choppy session for longer-dated treasuries, where yields fell to their lowest levels in several weeks as crude oil prices fell steeply. The benchmark US 10-year treasury yield ended Monday only slightly lower at 4.91% after probing as low as 4.865% intraday. The benchmark 2-year yield was almost unchanged near 4.60%.
• US high yield bonds remain under pressure as an attempted revival of risk sentiment Monday fizzled by later in the session. The Bloomberg measure we track of the spread between US high yield bonds and US Treasuries tightened a single basis point from its 18-month highs from Friday to close the day at 339 basis points.

Currencies

• The US dollar fought back from a modest sell-off Monday that was likely inspired by the steep drop in crude oil prices and an attempted broad revival of risk sentiment that failed by later in the day. EURUSD rose as high as 1.1237 but ended the day back below 1.1200, while USDJPY was rangebound and capped by 158.00, with the massive line of resistance above from recent weeks’ price action.
• The Aussie slipped on a dovish hike, as the RBA surprised with its very split decision to hike, guidance for further rate tightening was softened and Governor Bullock suggested future decisions are uncertain and data dependent as it lowered the growth outlook for this year and next and raised the anticipated unemployment rate for the forecast horizon. AUDUSD back down to the 0.6980 area after the decision, while AUDNZD traded near 1.2410, down from the 1.2475 prior to the decision.

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