Weekly market recap & what’s ahead

1 September 2025 (recap week of 25 to 29 August 2025)

Headlines & introduction

AI highs meet hardware doubts
Markets closed out August with a mix of strength and hesitation. In the US, the S&P 500 pushed to a record high mid-week before slipping on Friday as worries about rising hardware costs hit the AI trade. Europe turned cautious on renewed talk of taxing bank reserves and political jitters in France, while Asian markets split between optimism in Hong Kong and currency pressure in Japan. Volatility stayed subdued, and crypto found steady support through Ethereum ETF inflows.

Market pulse: Confidence held, but cracks in tech margins and policy uncertainty left investors watchful.

Equities

Tech still leads, but margins under pressure
The S&P 500 hit a fresh peak of 6,501.86 on Thursday, only to retreat Friday when Marvell (−18.6%) and Dell (−8.9%) warned on AI hardware costs. Nvidia beat earnings expectations yet cooled guidance on China, tempering the AI rally. Earlier in the week, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Snowflake, and CrowdStrike helped lift sentiment. In Europe, weakness in ASML (−2.7%) and selling in UK banks dragged indices lower after proposals to tax interest on reserves, with NatWest (−4.6%), Lloyds (−3.4%), and Barclays (−2.3%) hit hardest. Asia saw Hong Kong stocks gain early but lose steam into Friday, while Japanese shares fell as a firmer yen hurt exporters.

Market pulse: Tech names kept markets afloat, but earnings showed just how tight margins have become.

Volatility

Steady VIX hides undercurrents
Despite heavy swings in individual tech names, the VIX held between 14 and 15.5, reflecting calm overall sentiment. Short-term gauges like the VIX1D spiked during earnings moves but quickly faded, leaving hedging costs at multi-month lows. Options markets pointed to daily S&P 500 moves of about ±1%, which aligned with the week’s trading range.

Market pulse: Volatility stayed quiet, but with jobs data ahead, calm can change quickly.

Digital assets

Ethereum ETFs take the lead
Crypto prices proved resilient. Bitcoin hovered between $108,000 and $113,000, while ether broke above $4,600 mid-week before easing. Institutional flows told the story: ETHA saw steady inflows, reflecting strong appetite for Ethereum exposure, while IBIT flows in Bitcoin were more uneven, swinging between inflows and outflows. Altcoins mostly tracked the majors, with volumes light and catalysts scarce.

Market pulse: Crypto held its ground, with Ethereum funds clearly in favour among institutions.

Fixed income

Rate-cut bets drive yields lower
Bond markets firmed as investors leaned into expectations for September Fed cuts. In the US, the 2-year yield fell to 3.61% and the 10-year touched 4.22% before inching higher on Friday as new supply hit. In Europe, French political concerns widened the OAT–Bund spread to 82 basis points before easing to 78 bps into the weekend.

Market pulse: Yields fell on policy expectations but steadied into supply and politics.

Commodities

Precious metals shine, energy stays muted
Safe-haven demand lifted precious metals. Gold held near $3,400, while silver pushed past $40 for the first time in 14 years. Softer yields and lingering Fed concerns underpinned both moves. Oil and gas prices were range-bound, but the Bloomberg Commodity Index logged a second weekly gain on strength in crude, copper, and metals.

Market pulse: Gold and silver led the charge, with energy still stuck in a holding pattern.

Currencies

Dollar softens as peers firm
The dollar drifted lower as rate-cut bets grew. EUR/USD climbed back above 1.17, the yen strengthened on cautious Bank of Japan signals and weaker US yields, and the yuan gained after the PBoC set a stronger daily fix. Overall, currency markets reflected investor caution ahead of the US jobs data.

Market pulse: The dollar slipped, with euro, yen, and yuan picking up ground.

Key takeaways

• US tech set new highs before margin worries triggered a pullback.
• Volatility stayed muted, with VIX holding in the mid-teens.
• Ethereum ETFs drew steady inflows; Bitcoin flows were uneven.
• Treasury yields fell on rate-cut bets, then steadied into supply.
• Gold and silver rallied, while oil stayed range-bound.
• The euro and yen strengthened as the dollar weakened.

Looking ahead (2–5 September 2025)

A shortened week still brings major events. Markets reopen Tuesday with ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending. Wednesday adds JOLTS job openings, factory orders, and the Fed’s Beige Book, alongside earnings from Salesforce (CRM), Figma (FIG), and HPE. Thursday brings ADP employment, jobless claims, productivity, the US trade deficit, ISM services PMI, and results from Broadcom (AVGO), Lululemon (LULU), DocuSign (DOCU), Samsara (IOT) and others. Friday’s focus is the US jobs report, a key input for the Fed’s September meeting.

Market pulse: A heavy calendar of jobs data and AI earnings will set the tone for early September.

Conclusion

August ended with signs of strength, but also with clear warning lights. Tech still leads, yet margins are narrowing and policy risks in both the US and Europe are coming back into focus. Volatility remained calm, but with critical economic data and earnings now on deck, investors should expect the pace to quicken.

Market pulse: Calm prevailed at month-end, but September begins with catalysts that could shift the outlook fast.