Weekly market recap & what's ahead

6 October 2025 (recap of 29 Sep to 3 Oct 2025)

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Headlines & introduction

Markets powered through a volatile, data-thinned week as the U.S. government shutdown delayed key macro releases but didn’t derail risk appetite. Equities pushed to new records, led by tech and healthcare, while volatility edged higher amid lingering uncertainty. Bitcoin set a fresh all-time high, gold soared toward USD 4 000, and global bond markets responded to hawkish or surprise political developments—most notably in Japan. Shutdown risks, surging precious metals, and the AI-fueled tech rally defined the week.

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Equities

U.S. indices notched record closes despite shutdown drama. On 29 Sep, the S&P 500 rose +0.3%, lifted by Jefferies and a private-equity deal for EA; gold and bond yields signalled caution ahead of potential shutdown. On 30 Sep, the Dow hit a record while Nike surged post-earnings and Pfizer gained +6.8% after a pricing deal. By 2 Oct, the S&P added +0.3% as healthcare and big tech continued to lead. The Nasdaq rose +0.4% on 3 Oct, helped by semis and FICO, while Tesla faded. In Europe, STOXX 600 closed the week +2.8%, its best since April, with Raiffeisen (+6–7%) and ABN AMRO (+2%) notable standouts. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei soared +4.9% on 3 Oct, propelled by leadership surprise favouring stimulus.

Market pulse: Record highs were fuelled by tech momentum and macro ambiguity, not derailed by shutdown noise.

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Volatility

Shutdown volatility spiked early, but didn’t panic markets. The VIX rose modestly during the week, closing at 16.6 on 3 Oct, its highest in a week, despite record equity closes. The MOVE index climbed to nearly 78 on 1 Oct, reflecting bond-market unease. Options markets priced a daily ±69-point move in the S&P 500 mid-week, highlighting event risk. However, realised volatility stayed modest, and some single-name options activity turned speculative even as the broader indices stayed stable.

Market pulse: Volatility perked up on data delays, but price action remained mostly calm—until proven otherwise.

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Digital assets

Bitcoin blasted through records as the “debasement trade” kicked in. BTC topped USD 125 000 on Sunday (5 Oct) before settling around USD 120 000, while ETH hit a new high over USD 4 600 before easing. ETF demand remained robust: IBIT took in USD 298.7 million on 30 Sep; ETHA drew USD 154.2 million, pushing combined inflows past USD 1 billion that day alone. Risk-on sentiment and shutdown-driven dollar softness supported the surge, even as weekend profit-taking trimmed gains. Altcoins like Solana and XRP also rose, albeit modestly.

Market pulse: The shutdown fuelled haven demand for crypto as investors chased momentum and ETF inflows.

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Fixed income

Bond markets danced to policy tunes and surprise politics. U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the 2-year yield falling to 3.54% on 2 Oct after soft ADP jobs data before bouncing to 3.58% by 4 Oct. The 10-year yield dipped to 4.08%, then rebounded to 4.15%. Japan saw the sharpest moves: after Takaichi’s LDP leadership win, dovish fiscal expectations triggered a steepening in the JGB curve, with the 40-year yield spiking to 3.56%—just shy of May highs.

Market pulse: With U.S. data silenced, global bonds turned to politics and overseas surprises for direction.

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Commodities

Gold surged toward USD 4 000, while oil struggled with oversupply. Gold extended its historic rally, nearing USD 4 000 per ounce by 3 Oct, as ETF inflows, shutdown fears, and a weakening dollar stoked demand. Silver (+64% YTD) and platinum (+92% YTD) joined the party. Crude fell hard: Brent dropped 6.5% on the week, briefly dipping below USD 65, as OPEC+ agreed only a modest supply hike for November and inventories swelled. The Bloomberg Commodity Index was flat on the week.

Market pulse: The gold rush intensified as oil slumped, showing diverging paths for metals and energy.

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Currencies

JPY collapsed on surprise LDP outcome; USD stayed choppy. The Japanese yen plunged nearly 2%, with USDJPY blasting above 150 after Takaichi’s victory signalled softer BoJ policy. EURJPY hit a record above 176. The U.S. dollar chopped through the week, firming by Friday after earlier declines. EURUSD ranged from 1.1779 to 1.1683, while AUDNZD pulled back from 3-year highs after China curbed ore imports from BHP.

Market pulse: JPY volatility stole the FX spotlight as political shocks rewrote policy expectations overnight.

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Key takeaways

• Equities: Record closes despite shutdown; semis and healthcare lead.
• Volatility: VIX 16.6; MOVE spiked on ADP and bond swings.
• Crypto: Bitcoin + ETH at ATHs; >USD 1 bn ETF inflows on 30 Sep.
• Rates: U.S. yields fell on soft data; Japan curve steepened hard.
• Gold: Approached USD 4 000; silver & platinum surged.
• Oil: Brent −6.5% on oversupply; modest OPEC+ hike.
• FX: JPY fell on LDP shock; USD slightly firmer.

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Looking ahead (6 – 10 October 2025)

The U.S. government shutdown may continue to delay key data, including jobless claims and the federal budget. Still on tap: Fed minutes (Wed), consumer sentiment (Fri), and multiple Fed speakers including Powell and Miran. Earnings include PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Levi Strauss, and Applied Digital. Meanwhile, Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days kick off—offering a read on consumer strength. Political risks and rate-cut speculation stay in focus.

Market pulse: With key data missing, Fed minutes and earnings take centre stage in a foggy macro week.

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Conclusion

Markets defied a shutdown-driven data blackout, climbing to new highs as gold and bitcoin surged, volatility simmered, and Japan stole the global spotlight. Yet with data uncertainty and political noise lingering, next week may bring more erratic swings and headline-driven moves. Investors remain optimistic—but nervous.